9 June 2005 - 2:37am
Peeking at the field
I was talking on Skype with a friend tonight. She'd missed Jon Stewart, so I was telling her about Colin Powell's appearance there. Then we started speculating on the next presidential election. Yeah yeah the mid-term elections come first, but let's face it, nothing is going to change until 2008. I'd like to think that the wingnuts lose out next year, but they have the game rigged pretty well.
So if* we have an election in 2008, who would run?
Republicans
- Colin Powell -- He's rested, he manages to be tactful without sounding like he's bullshitting as much as he is, he's popular. But who is he? Wild card.
- John McCain -- The New Yorker all but endorsed him in last week's issue. He might be pro-choice, though he'd never admit it. (Supposedly he made a decision to run pro-life as a political tactic for success in the Republican Party. Can we trust that?)
- Condi Rice -- Yes, if she runs she'd have to be "Condi." Politicians must have unpretentious names. The rumors are faint, and could be way off -- after all, I'm not a DC media girl. ;) Could she maintain her poise under the pressure? She seemed ready to pop in her Secretary of State confirmation hearings.
- Bill Frist -- Yes, the good doctor who knows better than you what you should do with your life. Frankly he has more wimp factor than Kerry did.
- Jeb Bush -- He says he has no intention of running. We've heard that before. Besides, he's a Bush -- Why should we believe him?
- Newt Gingrich -- I saw him on C-Span a couple of weeks ago. Given the current wingnut status quo, he's starting to sound downright moderate! He's positioning himself against the radical christianists. Can he win on public revulsion of self-righteous pseudo-moral finger wagglers?
There are others -- fundie christianists, governators aside from Ahnohd, televangelists -- not quite in the spotlight yet. I know there's a pseudo-Christian first-stone-caster who's much admired by the sanctimonious set, but his name escapes me. Some people mention Rudi, but he's too kinky, too unstable in family life, and comes off as too much the efficient manager -- a mayor, not a president. He'd certainly never win the hot dog vendor vote, that's for sure.
Democrats
- Hillary Clinton -- We all know she's going to run. Why do we pretend? But she has some real enemies. Can she be strong enough to stand up to the nasty goppers?
- John Edwards -- Honestly I don't know how he expects to do well when he's out of the picture for so long. But "they" keep mentioning him.
- ... -- um.......
Isn't that pathetic? Is there no Democrat of national stature who has any presential qualities? Barbara Boxer? I don't know much about her. Warren Beatty? I think you have to be a bad actor to succeed in politics. Richardson? Legalizing pot. Biden? Plagiarist. Bill Moyers? I don't know anything about what might have motivated his abrupt departure from broadcasting, but he's sure sounding off very strongly about corporate corruption of our political system. He's definitely a man with something to say, and having come out of the political world, he just might run, if only to get time at the microphone. That would be interesting!
And yet....
What could be much more interesting is how the campaigns are run, what with the changes in the mainstream media, the growth of the new media, and the growing disaffection in the electorate. Something's gotta give ... and it won't be pretty.
--
* I say "if" because I still have a touch of concern that the chickenhawk junta we have now is not going to want to let go of the reins. I hope I'm wrong.
[Postscript: It is rather nice that more than one woman's name gets mentioned among serious contenders.]
media girl also blogs at other places.
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Try:
Bill Richardson
Janet Napolitano
Mark Warner
Tim Bredesen
Wesley Clarke
Personally, I tend to avoid senators for president b/c of what I call the "Henry Clay factor." Basically, Henry Clay was one of the greatest senators who ever lived and one of the three leading legislators of the nineteenth century. However, despite his running several times, he never made president.
My gut feeling is that the Senate requires vastly different skills and abilities than the office of president (or campaigning for president), and that no matter how good the senator is, it is very rare that he can overcome his senator-ness (for lack of a better word) and mount a successful presidential campaign.
--|PW|--
Four senators or former senators became President: Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon. Three were Vice-Presidents and two came into office following the death of the President - and re-elected in their own right. Ford came out of the House, was never elected. Bush senior had been in the House for one term.
Harding served as first governor and later senator. Coolidge was a governor. Herbert Hoover Secretary of Commerce for Coolidge.
Only at the beginning of the last century was an amendment made to the Constitution providing for direct election of senators. Since they represented the interests of the states, they had been elected - more or less - by the state legislatures prior to that time.
I suppose this supports exactly what you say in skills and the ability to win elected office.
The interesting exception is General Eisenhower who was immensely popular, but never stood for public office prior to his run for President.
To Media girl's list, Condi Rice and Powell have more in common than their race. They have background which has (at least in the last century) not been obstacles from serving as President - a cabinet office and a military officer.
Okay, I've been watching the sci-fi channel too much.
that prospect would be a good thing, but Condi is so incompetent that I'd shudder to see it happen.
Myfirst choice would be Boxer and Moyers, Edwards and Kerry need to stfu - they promised they'd fight another stolen election and then didn't. That's all I need to know about them.
Morgaine-ism© #8
"A Woman's Sexual and Reproductive Autonomy is Sacred and Absolute."