On January 1, 2000, Texas began enforcement of a law that requires physicians to notify a parent of a minor child seeking an abortion at least 48 hours before the procedure.

Today, March 9th, The New England Journal of Medicine is publishing a statistical study entitled Changes in Abortions and Births and the Texas Parental Notification Law by Theodore Joyce, Ph.D., Robert Kaestner, Ph.D., and Silvie Colman, B.B.A. The study concerns itself with analyzing abortion statistical changes due to Texas' recently passed parental notification law.

:::UPDATE::: I've tacked on additional material at the bottom of this post.

I can't put up a link to the Report yet, nor can I quote from it but as soon as I can get my hands on a copy I'm going to update this post. This story is important I feel, as it is going to be used politically to "sell" the amazing and astounding success of parental notification laws. In fact a few of the stories already available here and here don't tell a reader much at all and I find them rather misleading. If you have the time and this issue concerns you, read the longer piece linked below, and then back up to this spot and read these two shorter pieces with a critical eye.

Also, please keep in mind that the study does not examine the parental notification law recently passed in 2005 (SB 419) requiring girls under 18 to obtain parental permission before having an abortion. That's a more recent law. The study is looking at an earlier law requiring "notification only" that was passed in 2000. I know it's hard to keep them all straight, there are so many, and I apologize for the plethora of anti-choice laws issuing from the Lone Star State.

Study: Texas parental law might lower — and delay — teen abortion

AUSTIN - Texas' rate of teen abortions fell after the state enacted a parental notification law, a new study found, but researchers also discovered an increase in the likelihood that girls nearly 18 will delay abortions so they don't have to tell their parents.

:::snip:::

After notification became law in Texas, the study shows, abortion rates among teens ages 15-17 fell 11 percent to 20 percent more than the rate among 18-year-olds, who were not affected by the law.

:::snip:::

The study acknowledges that abortion rates and birth rates among teens have been declining nationally and in Texas since 1991. Lead researcher Ted Joyce said researchers tried to compensate for that by subtracting the drop in abortion rates among 18-year-olds — 7 percent — from the rate among the younger girls.

:::snip:::

Joyce, who said he supports abortion rights, hopes the study spotlights what he calls the adverse outcomes — later abortions and more unintended childbearing — of parental involvement laws.

"It's a public health issue and we should worry about it," he said. "If we really want to avoid abortions we should help kids avoid pregnancies."

:::snip:::

Joe Pojman, executive director of the Texas Alliance for Life, said he was thrilled with the study, and optimistic that Texas' new law requiring not only parental notification, but parental consent, will "have a bigger effect on reducing abortions and pregnancy for minor girls."

:::snip:::

"It just shows how laws like this can lead to health risks for teens. Abortion is a safe procedure, but it's less safe later in the pregnancy," said Lawrence Finer, director of domestic research for the nonpartisan Guttmacher Institute.

Overall, Finer said he thinks the effect of parental involvement laws on abortion rates is small, compared with factors such as improved sexual education and birth control.

Mr Pojman is stretching. This study looks closely at abortion rates not birth rates, except in a very limited sense. As Moiv mentioned in an email discussion on the study there was "a bump in the birth rate among the only group in which that was really looked at -- a narrowly defined group of 17 year-olds who didn't turn 18 in time for an abortion under the Texas 18-week limit." Expect the anti-choicers to be trumpeting their successes though, although its perfectly logical if you put legal barriers between a woman and her choice to abort a pregnancy you'll lower the abortion rate because they're suddenly harder to obtain. What you won't hear the anti-choice folks crowing about are increased unwanted births. Mr. Pojmans' artful dodge of lumping two completely different issues together "reducing abortions and pregnancy for minor girls" doesn't fly with me. Neither this law or its more restrictive replacement will lower minor girls' rate of pregnancy.

Anyway, I'm off to bed now! I'll update this later if there's more news.

:::UPDATE:::

As I mentioned in my initial portion of this post the New England Journal of Medicine has published, Changes in Abortions and Births and the Texas Parental Notification Law by Theodore Joyce, Ph.D., Robert Kaestner, Ph.D., and Silvie Colman, B.B.A. The results of the study are behind a subscription wall at present but they'll be available free of charge in six months. Here is the abstract of the study and below the snip are some cites with a little more detail.

Background
On January 1, 2000, Texas began enforcement of a law that requires physicians to notify a parent of a minor child seeking an abortion at least 48 hours before the procedure.

Methods
We assessed changes in the rates in Texas of abortions and births (events per 1000 age-specific population) before enforcement of the parental notification law (1998 to 1999) and after enforcement (2000 to 2002). We did this by comparing the rate changes among minors 15 to 17 years of age at the time of conception (i.e., those who were subject to the law) with those of teens 18 years of age at the time of conception (i.e., those who were not subject to the law).

Results
After enforcement of the law, abortion rates fell by 11 percent among 15-year-olds (rate ratio, 0.89; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.94), 20 percent among 16-year-olds (rate ratio, 0.80; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.76 to 0.85), and 16 percent among 17-year-olds (rate ratio 0.84; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.80 to 0.87), relative to the rates among 18-year-olds. Among the subgroup of minors 17.50 to 17.74 years of age at the time of conception (who would have been subject to the parental notification law in early pregnancy), birth rates rose by 4 percent relative to those of teens 18.00 to 18.24 years of age (rate ratio, 1.04; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.08). The adjusted odds ratio for having an abortion after 12 weeks' gestation among minors 17.50 to 17.74 years of age as compared with 18-year-olds was 1.34 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.62).

Conclusions
The Texas parental notification law was associated with a decline in abortion rates among minors from 15 to 17 years of age. It was also associated with increased birth rates and rates of abortion during the second trimester among a subgroup of minors who were 17.50 to 17.74 years of age at the time of conception.

:::snip:::

The effect of parental involvement laws is uncertain. Some research suggests that such laws lower rates of abortion among minors but have little effect on birth rates. Other studies suggest that the observed decline in abortions is spurious, since abortions to minors obtained outside their state of residence are often not recorded. Moreover, results from previous research may be less relevant to the probable effect of such laws today, because of the increased distance a minor has to travel in order to obtain an abortion in states without parental involvement laws. The number of states that enforce parental involvement laws has doubled since 1991. Given the more restrictive environment, such laws may be more likely to lower abortion rates and increase birth rates and may increase the likelihood that an abortion will be performed later in pregnancy.

:::snip:::

The odds that a pregnancy would end in abortion after enforcement of the law fell significantly more among minors who were 17.50 to 17.74 years of age at the time of conception than among 18-year olds (adjusted odds ratio, 0.77; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.71 to 0.84) (Table 4). Among minors who were 17.70 to 17.80 years of age at the time of conception, there was an increase in the proportion of abortions performed after 12 weeks’ gestation after enforcement of the law (years 2000–2002) (Fig. 1). There was no analogous rise in second-trimester abortions among 17-year-olds two years before enforcement of the law (1998–1999). The adjusted odds of having an abortion after 12 weeks increased among teens who were 17.50 to 17.74 years of age at the time of conception relative to those who were 18 years of age (odds ratio, 1.34; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.10 to 1.62) (Table 4). However, no significant increase in the odds of second-trimester abortion was observed among younger 17-year-olds (among whom parental notification requirements would have been in force throughout the time that abortion was an option).

:::snip:::

On the basis of birth and abortion records, we found that enforcement of Texas’s parental notification law was associated with a decline in abortion rates among all minors. In association with the law, there was also a decrease in the odds that a pregnancy would result in an abortion and an increase in the odds of a second-trimester abortion among older minors who were 17.50 to 17.74 years of age at the time of conception. We also found that among this older group of minors, the abortion rate of non-Hispanic white minors and Hispanic minors fell after enforcement of the law, whereas the abortion rate of non-Hispanic black minors did not. This finding was consistent with racial and ethnic differences in communication between minors and parents about the use of reproductive health services. In a recent survey of minors at family planning clinics, 53.1 percent of Hispanics, 58.1 of non-Hispanic whites, and 75.9 of non-Hispanic blacks reported that their parents knew of their use of the clinics’ services.21 In an earlier study, researchers reported that parents of black girls were more likely to know that the minor sought an abortion than were the parents of white girls.

The Dallas Morning news :::free registration required::: has this to say:

Teen abortion down in state since notification law passed

Abortion rates in Texas and nationally have been falling for more than a decade, but the new study, published today in the New England Journal of Medicine, suggests that the law has accelerated this trend. Among 18-year-olds – girls closest in age to minors but unaffected by parental notification – the decline was 7 percent.

The larger drop in rates among younger girls suggests the law may be making the difference.

:::snip:::

When the researchers analyzed the numbers for 17-year-olds, one new phenomenon appeared: While this group's overall rate of abortion fell, the data suggested that many girls were postponing the procedure. The study found a spike in second-trimester abortions for those who became pregnant within six months of their 18th birthday, when they would be past the law's reach.

:::snip:::

The state's abortion and birth rates generally fell for all teenagers studied. For example, among 17-year-olds, the rate dropped from 18.7 to 14.5 abortions per 1,000 girls. On average, there were more than 14,600 abortions each year among teenagers in the two years before the law, and about 13,500 after. During that time, births among teens also dropped from 65,055 to 64,717.

:::snip:::

The state's abortion and birth rates generally fell for all teenagers studied. For example, among 17-year-olds, the rate dropped from 18.7 to 14.5 abortions per 1,000 girls. On average, there were more than 14,600 abortions each year among teenagers in the two years before the law, and about 13,500 after. During that time, births among teens also dropped from 65,055 to 64,717.

Note the much greater drop in abortions for all teenagers studied and compare it to the almost insignificant drop in birthrates. Within that lack of a equivilent reduction may lie the brave new world of government-induced birth.

"I think the reduction in abortion is completely in line with past research," said Phillip Levine, an economist from Wellesley College in Massachusetts who has studied the impact of abortion laws.

Past studies have found little effect on teen birth rates but a drop in abortions, suggesting fewer pregnancies as well. The new analysis is the first to find an increase in births among any age group that corresponded with a decline in abortions, which may mean, the researchers said, that more teenagers are having babies they did not plan.

"If this minor did not want to have this birth, is that a good outcome?" Dr. Joyce said. "What are the consequences to the offspring of the women who have the unintended birth?"

ABC news had this to say on the subject.

Study Suggests Parental Notification Laws Reduce Abortions

...the survey in the Journal had some disturbing statistics. It found that among 17-and-a-half-year-old girls, abortions in the second trimester rose by a troubling 34 percent, meaning that these girls were purposely putting off their procedures until they became 18 when the notification law would no longer apply to them.

:::snip:::

Susan Hayes, a Dallas lawyer and co-founder of the advocacy group Jane's Due Process Inc., said this means the 17-and-a-half-year-olds are "delaying access to health care because of the barriers the law puts into place."

Moreover, critics of the law believe it is an unnecessary intrusion into the lives of minors because the rates of abortion have been declining for years.

"Women who are facing unplanned pregnancies probably do choose abortion less because there is less of a stigma on single motherhood than there was 30 years ago," added Hayes.

I might update this article again later tonight, and go into some political aspects that were troubling to me in regards to the more recent Texas parental consent law.